Parachute Ad !

for sale : nice parachute, never opened, once used, slightly stained !

A true friend

You came like spring,

And lit my soul on fire.

When the birds began to sing,

You came and inspired.

When the flowers began to bloom,

With the smell of spring in the air.

You took away the gloom,

And taught me how to care.

I'll never be the same,

You breathed new life into me.

I'm so glad you came,

A True Friend You'll Always Be.

Expert Systems - An Extract from My 1st Seminar.

Extract from my 10 year older seminar on Expert Systems - an Artificial Intelligence Technology. I won 1st Prize in 3rd year symposium. Then, later I continued & extended the same as my final year compulsory seminar. Just Blogging it to my blog.

What is AI ?

In all science fiction movies, we see machines talking and acting like a real human!

Well , That's not really a fiction, coz such machine exists ! Not at such sophisticated level at which they are shown, but the seeds of those capabilities do indeed exist today in research laboratories, and some of the technologies are becoming commercial realities. The scientists and business people who are investigating the potential of these new technologies are working in several different fields, but those fields often are grouped together under a common heading: "Artificial Intelligence".

Technically speaking AI is defined as "Artificial intelligence is the part of computer science concerned with designing intelligent computer systems, that is, systems that exhibit the characteristics we associate with intelligence in human behavior."

Introduction to Expert System

Human experts in any fields are frequently in great demand and are, therefore in short supply. One solution to this dilemma is the Expert System, an AI computer program specially designed to represent human expertise in a particular domain (area of expertise).

Now, an Expert system is a computer program designed to act as an expert in a particular domain (area of expertise). Also known as knowledge based system, an Expert system typically includes a sizeable knowledge base, consisting of fact about domain and rules for applying those facts. Expert system currently is designed to assist experts, not to replace them. Expert systems act as an intelligent assistant to human experts as well as assisting people who otherwise might not have access to expertise.

Expert system can help meet the following needs: -

• Expertise,
  
• Knowledge,
  
• Competence,
  
• New approaches to business organization and productivity.
  

Expert system must not be confused with database programs. Although both Expert system and database programs feature the retrieval of stored information, the two types of programs differs greatly. In medicine, for example, a database program might be useful for enumerating the symptoms of various illnesses; while an expert system might help to diagnose an illness, determine its causes and suggest programs for treatment. Database program cannot draw conclusions by reasoning about the facts in its domain, users of a database programs are expected to draw their own conclusions. In contrast, Expert systems contain expertise, consisting of both declarative and procedural knowledge, which allows emulating the reasoning processes of human experts.

Expert systems have proven to be useful in diverse area such as medical diagnosis, chemical analysis, geological exploration and computer system configuration. As one of the first AI technologies to help solve important problems, the expert systems field has become imbued with a certain mystique, a high tech aura that illuminates the field and, at the same time, discourages closer examination. Expert system holds much promise, but they also have been subjected to a great deal of 'hype' as they have moved into the commercial marketplace.

Process List

Complete Process List of PM processes (PMBOK v3) with their knowledge area and process groups.

S.No.	Name Of Process	Knowledge Area	Process Group
1	Develop Project Charter Process	Integration	Initiation
2	Develop Preliminary Project Scope Statement Process	Integration	Initiation
3	Develop Project Management Plan Process	Integration	Planning
4	Direct and Manage Project Execution Process	Integration	Execution
5	Monitor and Control Project Work Process	Integration	Monitor & Control
6	Integrated Change Control Process	Integration	Monitor & Control
7	Close Project Process	Integration	Closure
8	Scope Planning Process	Scope	Planning
9	Scope Definition Process	Scope	Planning
10	Create Work Breakdown Structure Process	Scope	Planning
11	Scope Verification Process	Scope	Monitor & Control
12	Scope Control Process	Scope	Monitor & Control
13	Activity Definition Process	Time	Planning
14	Activity Duration Estimating Process	Time	Planning
15	Activity Sequencing Process	Time	Planning
16	Activity Resource Estimating Process	Time	Planning
17	Schedule Development Process	Time	Planning
18	Schedule Control Process	Time	Monitor & Control
19	Cost Estimating Process	Cost	Planning
20	Cost Budgeting Process	Cost	Planning
21	Cost Control Process	Cost	Monitor & Control
22	Quality Planning Process	Quality	Planning
23	Perform Quality Assurance Process	Quality	Execution
24	Perform Quality Control Process	Quality	Monitor & Control
25	Communication Planning Process	Communication	Planning
26	Information Distribution Process	Communication	Execution
27	Performance Reposting Process	Communication	Monitor & Control
28	Manage Stakeholders Process	Communication	Monitor & Control
29	Risk Management Planning Process	Risk	Planning
30	Risk Identification Process	Risk	Planning
31	Qualitative Risk Analysis Process	Risk	Planning
32	Quantitative Risk Analysis Process	Risk	Planning
33	Risk Response Planning Process	Risk	Planning
34	Risk Monitoring and Control Process	Risk	Monitor & Control
35	Human Resource Planning Process	Human Resource	Planning
36	Acquire Project Team Process	Human Resource	Execution
37	Develop Project Team Process	Human Resource	Execution
38	Manage Project Team Process	Human Resource	Monitor & Control
39	Plan Purchases & Acquisitions Process	Procurement	Planning
40	Plan Contracting Process	Procurement	Planning
41	Request Seller Reponses Process	Procurement	Execution
42	Select Seller Process	Procurement	Execution
43	Contract Administration Process	Procurement	Monitor & Control
44	Contract Closure	Procurement	Closure

 

 

 

 

 

Earned Value Technique

Earned Value Management is nice technique to gauge the performance of a project



Here is one for Earned Value Technique used to calculate performance of project at any given point of time.



Key Definitions:

• 
  
  Planned Value (PV) or Budgeted Cost Of Work Scheduled (BCWS):
  
  • Authorized budget assigned to the scheduled work to be accomplished for a schedule activity or WBS component.
    
• 
  
  Earned Value (EV) or Budgeted Cost Of Work Performed (BCWP):
  
  • Approved budget assigned to that work for a schedule activity or WBS component.
    
• 
  
  Actual Cost (AC) or Actual Cost Of Work Performed (ACWP)
  
  • Total cost incurred or recorded in accomplishing work performed during a given time period for a schedule activity or WBS component.
    

Sample Data:

Task Name	Duration	Planned Cost	Cost Expended	% Completed	Earned Value
A	23	150	250	100	150
B	4	40	50	80	32
C	32	75	100	70	52.5
D	12	100
E	14	150

• At the end of 59th day, performance review is required.
  
• 
  
  Only three tasks - A, B, C were planned till 59th day.
  
  • So PV = 150+40+75 = 265
    
• 
  
  Actual cost by 59th day is
  
  • AC = 250+50+100 = 400
    
• 
  
  Earned Value will be based on % completed * planned cost.
  
  • 
    
    EV = 100%*150 + 80%*40 + 70%*75 = 234.5
    
    
    
    
• Schedule Variance (SV) = EV - PV = 234.5 - 265 = -30.5
  
• 
  
  Cost Variance (CV) = EV - AC = 234.5 - 400 = -165.5
  
  • Negative SV means project behind schedule.
    
  • Negative CV means cost has been expended more that what was assigned.
    
• CPI (Cost Performance Index) = EV/AC = 234.5/400 = 0.5863
  
• 
  
  SPI (Schedule Performance Index) = EV/PV = 234.5/265 = 0.8849
  
  • SPI less than 1 means behind schedule.
    
  • SPI more than 1 means ahead of schedule.
    
  • SPI = 1 means on schedule.
    
  • CPI less than 1 means cost overrun.
    
  • CPI more than 1 means cost under run.
    
  • CPI = 1 means on budget.
    
  
  
  
• 
  
  To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) = (BAC - EV)/(BAC - AC)
  
  • BAC = Budget At Completion. = 150+40+75+100+150 = 515
    
  • TCPI is efficiency that must be achieved to complete remaining work with remaining budget.
    
  • TCPI = (515 - 234.5)/(515 - 400)=2.4391
    
  • So, 243% of original planned performance required to meet objectives.
    
  
  
  
• Estimate at Completion (EAC) = expected total costs of scheduled activity, WBS component or project.
  
• 
  
  Estimate to Complete (ETC) = expected cost needed to complete all the remaining work for a schedule activity, WBS or the project.
  
  • EAC = AC + ETC
    
  • ETC = (BAC - EV) for atypical variance.
    
  • EAC = AC + BAC - EV
    
  • ETC = (BAC - EV)/CPI for typical variance.
    
  • EAC = BAC/CPI for typical variance.
    
  • 
    
    VAC (Variance At Completion) = EAC - BAC
    
    
    
    
  • If this project has atypical variance, then
    
  • ETC = 515 - 234.5 = 280.5
    
  • EAC = 400 + 280.5 = 680.5
    
  • 
    
    VAC = 680.5 - 515 = 165.5
    
    
    
    
  • If this project has typical variance, then
    
  • ETC = (515 - 234.5)/0.5863 = 478.424
    
  • EAC = 515/0.5863 = 878.3899
    
  • VAC = 878.3899 - 515 = 363.3899
    

Self Respect vs. Ego

There is thin line between self-respect and ego.

What I feel is self-respect for me , may be perceived by other as an ego.

If something hurts my self-respect, I definitely feel anger.

But if I exhibit my anger, other will perceive it as an ego.

What exactly distinguish self-respect from an ego ?

Probably everybody will call their ego as their self-respect.

And other's self-respect as ego.

Probably anger is the main culprit.